7samurai Prediction 2012 -2017 [7samurai]

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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	电梯直达[url=][/url] 楼主 发表于 2011-12-9 20:37:23 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-9 08:10 编辑 Based on my analysis , I've been waiting for this moment  for 5 years.   Double dip recession coming but a longer cycle one.  I see signs of softening in real estate (volume has been steadily declining for awhile )  and overalll global economy teetering to point of collapse - Europe , USA and China not in good shape - let's all print money to solve all our problems!   - Hyper Inflation? Stagflation coming? 1.  MM prices will drop particularly in the mid market segment and there will be much more choice and competition 2.  Residential Real estate will plummet - condos 1st to feel it spilling over to residential housing -  Yes Canadians are just the same like everyone else  in the world and will learn a harsh lesson   3.  Rents will decrease 4.  Unemployment will rise I recommend brothers reduce debt ASAP and get rid of speculative real estate.  Any one who recently purchased a new home /condo will be depressed and be in a world of hurt for a long time.  Yes you purchased at the top of the cycle.   If you can sell your home now and rent, do it because you wont see these prices again for a very very long time.    But what do I know?  I'm just a simple hunter
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iwantmm 9 主题 307 帖子 2151 积分 中级会员 积分2151 发消息	沙发 发表于 2011-12-9 21:40:36 | 只看该作者 Great to see u again here Bro 7. U become an economist rather than a hunter now. I do have the same feeling as you on the economic side. But I miss your reports so much on the other hand. Write us some good stories again.
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dashfortrash 8 主题 219 帖子 994 积分 中级会员 积分994 发消息	板凳 发表于 2011-12-10 03:56:28 | 只看该作者 good analysis, but i feel that as long as Canada/US keep interest rates dirt low, then u're not going to stop the hordes of idiots from borrowing against a 30 yr mortgage with little down. I think that's whats helping the current bubble a lot. How do you think that will eventually falter?
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	地板   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-10 13:43:50 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-10 00:48 编辑 dashfortrash 发表于 2011-12-9 14:56 good analysis, but i feel that as long as Canada/US keep interest rates dirt low, then u're not goin ... Very simple my friend.  avg house debt in Canada is 140%.   Avg household income to house price is over 6.  Vancouver 11 and Toronto 8.  In a balance market it should be 3.    We have reached a saturation point.  Only so many Canadians can only borrow so much.   November experienced the largest drop in sales volume year over year. Also rise in unemployment will quicken the decline in prices. If lower interest was the sole indicator of housing sales then USA would be booming. In fact  prices have been declining since 2005.  Americans are debt ridden, unemployment is high and  people scared about the future and job loss.
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	5#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-10 13:45:45 | 只看该作者 iwantmm 发表于 2011-12-9 08:40 Great to see u again here Bro 7. U become an economist rather than a hunter now. Iwantmm brother I've been very very busy at work with year end .  Gotta  make money to fuel 2012 hunting
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porkyporky 10 主题 1738 帖子 4515 积分 高级会员 积分4515 发消息	6# 发表于 2011-12-10 13:56:11 | 只看该作者 7samurai 发表于 2011-12-10 00:43 Very simple my friend.  avg house debt in Canada is 140%.   Avg household income to house price is  ... An american friend told me that today's Canada is just like the US 3 - 4 years ago. People are way too easy to get a low rate mortgage for 25 - 30 years.......... I believe that soon or later, Canada's real estate market will be the same as the US today.
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bigheadteam 7 主题 40 帖子 950 积分 中级会员 积分950 发消息	7# 发表于 2011-12-10 16:34:54 | 只看该作者 Problem are the rich immigrants, they bring lots of $ over because there are no laws against multiple properties. This drives up the demand and us (blue collar at least for myself) gets hit with crazily increasing costs of living. Salaries cannot keep up with inflation yet land and properties continues to increase.
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sexoholic 2 主题 64 帖子 503 积分 中级会员 积分503 发消息	8# 发表于 2011-12-10 21:22:36 | 只看该作者 "Rents will decrease"----> DISAGREED IF people sold their properties, they still need a place to stay/live, right? Best way to do is; rent a place and limit the variable cost to family expenses, also the privious-property-owner will save CASH to fight another day...that means bank savings are increased, remember $1>$3 general theory to Monetary/ Fiscal policy. Basic supply/demand stuff, we should say the property price will move downward; the rent price will move upward at the same time! Only a specific estate will remain the same price, some chubby/slum area's properties will decrease the price slightly. "Customer/Inventor buying preference" In the very frist few chapters in MicroEconomics! You know what? The Canadian Government will not let the estate price going down, if it does, the whole country will shoot for shit at least 2 - 3 years! Main reason: Too much debts againsting Bank of Canada, and they know the consequence if printing more bills! Therefore, the price will remain the same as usual, not going up or down, except the maintenence fees + land tax will go up! --->MacroEconomics
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	9#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-10 22:18:50 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-10 12:30 编辑 Sexholic  bro  I live in the real  world not economic theory -  I don't know how old you are but I have lived through 2 major housing bust.  There is is an oversupply and gut of condo's flooding the market purchased by speculators and people who took on too much debt with 0-10% downpayment.  I lived in Vancouver during financial crisis and both realestate prices and  rents started to decrease.  YES that's fucking Vancouver where nothing goes down remember?  But the leaders around the world started pumping money and lowered interest rates even more. Which saved Canada's Realestate markets asstemporarily.   It's basic concept of supply and demand. You underestimated the supply rental side.   <You know what? The Canadian Government will not let the estate price going down, if it does, the whole country will shoot for shit at least 2 - 3 years! > Sexholic      Unfortunately this is a myth which I hear quite often. Government intervention always has  consequences.  Low interest rates caused this debt, financial crisis and this big Canadian Realestate bubble.  Easy access to cheap capital drives greed.  If only life was so easy and government would save everyone for taking on too much debt.  Apparently the US government didn't care about their people  but Canada does? The Bank of Canada has a warning for condo investors – the boom times may be over. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/r ... utm_content=2264763 P.S Canada has it's own ticking time bomb - Subprime Mortgage like in  USA Freddi Mac And Fannie Mae.  Guess who is this organization and who will pay for the mess? Anyways there will be lots of dimsum/kmichi/manjicakes selection to eat  for less money.  The problem is will we all have a job to take advantage?
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10#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-10 22:52:34 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-10 12:57 编辑 bigheadteam 发表于 2011-12-10 03:34 Problem are the rich immigrants, they bring lots of $ over because there are no laws against multipl ... I hear the wealthy foreign investor arguement all the time.  The realestate agents like to use this line "foreign money"   Same story for the last 2 housing busts I live through.  Blame it on immigrants money - 1st wave HK, 2nd wave Taiwan, 3rd wave Middle East, 4th Wave now China money.    Foreign money is what I call the "Dumb Suckers" money which comes in last buying at the height and propels a speculative bubble with one final push.   The Smart money got in before the herd and is now out

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astroglide 0 主题 1 帖子 213 积分 注册会员 积分213 发消息	11# 发表于 2011-12-11 09:05:29 | 只看该作者 While its true that the government wont allow the housing market to crash, sometimes its out of the central bank's hand when you operate in a free market economy. At some point, the CMHC will have to re-evaluate their housing value assumption, and thats when their mortgage model goes BOOM! All the banks will not lose a penny since most vulnerable mortgages are guaranteed by the tax payer. The saddest part is that foreigners do not have attachment to this country, they can come in and out in a second. While many house rich canadians enjoy their artificial equity/wealth due to their real estate holding through various leveraging financial products, the time will come when they have to pay back everything plus much higher interest. Nothing goes up forever, and you can not build true wealth and economic growth through cheap credit and lax monetary policty.
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Dailonlon 2 主题 14 帖子 302 积分 注册会员 积分302 发消息	12# 发表于 2011-12-11 09:28:08 | 只看该作者 I just went to a new site that's open today to 818, 50% are sold........... not only chinese, western ppl, south asian ppl are lining up to buy.  and it's only a semi, 1600 ft for 550k
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	13#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-11 12:23:08 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-10 23:24 编辑 Dailonlon 发表于 2011-12-10 20:28 I just went to a new site that's open today to 818, 50% are sold........... not only chinese, wester ... In stock investing terms - suckers rally or Real estate terms - the greater fool .  Take your pick
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bbbbbbba7 1 主题 56 帖子 255 积分 注册会员 积分255 发消息	14# 发表于 2011-12-11 12:59:24 | 只看该作者 Dailonlon 发表于 2011-12-10 20:28 I just went to a new site that's open today to 818, 50% are sold........... not only chinese, wester ... Can you please explain what is "open to 818"! Thanks
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dashfortrash 8 主题 219 帖子 994 积分 中级会员 积分994 发消息	15# 发表于 2011-12-11 14:35:25 | 只看该作者 7samurai 发表于 2011-12-10 00:43 Very simple my friend.  avg house debt in Canada is 140%.   Avg household income to house price is  ... yah I'm in a dilemma. I helped pay off my parent's place and am looking to move out and get my own. But everything seems too overpriced. condos are like 400k+, houses are out of the question, even ones in aurora are like 600-650K. I'm like, WTF.... but obviously, the fear is, if I dont buy now, it'll be 850K in 2 years.
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	16#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-12 08:43:36 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-11 19:48 编辑 <but obviously, the fear is, if I dont buy now, it'll be 850K in 2 years.> This is precisely the fear that the real estate industry plays on and social/family pressure.  Good ahead go "all in" at the peak bro When the bubble burst due to interest rates resetting to normal levels 6-8% or unemployment rises - divorces/suicide/depression rates increase.
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Dailonlon 2 主题 14 帖子 302 积分 注册会员 积分302 发消息	17# 发表于 2011-12-12 09:52:25 | 只看该作者 818, just to check it out of curiosity
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	18#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-12 10:23:26 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-11 21:43 编辑 astroglide 发表于 2011-12-10 20:05 While its true that the government wont allow the housing market to crash, sometimes its out of the  ... Very astute bro.  CMHC is the trojan horse ticking time bomb.  It's the Canadian equivalent of Fanny Mae and Freddi Mac - the biggest lender and guarantor to high risk borrowers (low or zero deposit to high loan amount ratio) .   That's why the big banks don't mind giving buyers a big fat mortgage which a person normally wouldn't qualify for if the banks had to carry the loan on their balance sheets.   Guess what?  You and I will be paying for bad financial decisions of others through higher taxes The MM market is going to flooded with high quality selection at a low price,  Many new graduates can't find jobs
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dashfortrash 8 主题 219 帖子 994 积分 中级会员 积分994 发消息	19# 发表于 2011-12-13 01:55:36 | 只看该作者 7samurai 发表于 2011-12-11 21:23 Very astute bro.  CMHC is the trojan horse ticking time bomb.  It's the Canadian equivalent of Fann ... you seem to really know your stuff. but do you have any suggestion where to park cash if buying a property is not the best investment right now? Stock market is so fucking volatile these days...
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jonp2k 2 主题 44 帖子 897 积分 中级会员 积分897 发消息

20# 发表于 2011-12-13 03:25:36 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 jonp2k 于 2011-12-12 14:26 编辑 The stock market may be volatile these days but this is the time you can make money with the price fluctuation. You can have more chances to buy low and sell high during the vigorous fluctuation.

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gameboy168 1 主题 14 帖子 838 积分 中级会员 积分838 发消息	21# 发表于 2011-12-13 04:29:39 | 只看该作者 7samurai 发表于 2011-12-10 09:18 Sexholic  bro  I live in the real  world not economic theory -  I don't know how old you are but I h ... I agree with you. make sense
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	22#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-13 07:54:37 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-12 18:55 编辑 dashfortrash 发表于 2011-12-12 12:55 you seem to really know your stuff. but do you have any suggestion where to park cash if buying a  ... There are so many stock investing approaches bro.   You need to research on your own and decide what makes sense from a risk tolerance and expected return standpoint.  Read alot of books on famous great investors and choose a philosophy what makes you comfortable based on your personality and how much time you have to spend.   Most brothers here are short term traders and  I wouldn't advise that path unless you are experienced. One thing is don't trust financial advisors working at Banks, Investment, Mutual Fund  or any Financial institution.  They don't know shit and not working in your best interest.   Don't trust anyone with your hard earned money.   It's your responsibility to invest time to learn and take care of your own finances.
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Ben2009 408 主题 2937 帖子 4万 积分 超级版主 积分45801 发消息	23# 发表于 2011-12-13 08:03:55 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 Ben2009 于 2011-12-12 19:04 编辑 7samurai 发表于 2011-12-12 18:54 There are so many stock investing approaches bro.   You need to research on your own and decide wha ... Very true 7 bro. I would like to expand a bit on wat u said. Not only are the run-of-the-mill "financial advisors" not working in your interest, they r quite often woefully incompetent (without being self-aware of their own ignorance). I've run into to many of those types in my day. Don't know if u guys ever heard of an outfit by the name of "rimerica". Then again, the same thing goes for the so-called "experts" in other fields, traffic-ticket fighters, auto-mechanics, computer technicians, etc, etc. Many of them know next to nothing and simply prey on those who know absolutely nothing. At the end of the day, due dilligence is very important.
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	24#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-13 08:54:52 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-12 20:39 编辑 Ben2009 发表于 2011-12-12 19:03 Very true 7 bro. I would like to expand a bit on wat u said. Not only are the run-of-the-mill "fina ... Good point Ben. It boggles my mind how little research is done in learning about investing by people.  I know friends who spend much more time researching buying a new stereo, car or home entertainment system to save money.   But when it comes to financial planning they easily trust and hand over all their hard earned money to financial advisers or mutual fund companies  and lose money.    Been there done that early in my life.    Until one day the light bulb went on.  These institutions make money from you whether you lose or make money on the investment.   They got no skin in the game.   If their ifund managers or stock analyst  are so great then they shouldn't get any fees or commissions when  performance is down. It should be pay for performance.    Sounds like the "house" at a casino.    The reason people like investing in houses/condos is because its "easier" to understand and tangible but like stocks there are complex macro forces/risks that take time to unravel and not easy to spot until it's too late and you lose your life savings.    Here is an interesting stat.  1) Real wages have not increased over last 20 years to catch up with rising inflation.  This means today's purchasing power of every dollar is very weak combined with Canada's high tax structure - income, property and GST/PST .  But prices have sky rocketed in real estate and other goods.  So how can people afford this?    Taking on HUGE DEBT due to cheap access to capital stemming from historically crazy very low interest rates never seen before since the great depression.   Something very terrible is going to happen ala USA melt down. Also Demographics 2)  Canada's Baby booomers represent over 30% of population. They drove consumer consumption, the stock market and housing market for the last 30 years.   50% (can't remember exactly)  of Boomers  don't  have enough savings to retire. All their wealth is in an illiquid asset - their house.   When these people sell their homes to fund their retirement and medical bills, there will be a flood of houses on the market.    Where will they live?  Retirement complexes .
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taiwanwolf 2 主题 103 帖子 688 积分 中级会员 积分688 发消息	25# 发表于 2011-12-13 14:12:54 | 只看该作者 An american friend told me that today's Canada is just like the US 3 - 4 years ago. People are way too easy to get a low rate mortgage for 25 - 30 years.......... ------------- Exactly。。。。I' ve been working in NYC between 2002-2009. I have personally witnessed the most recent boom & bust cycle of the NYC real estate. The current boom & bust cycle of Canadian mkt seems to lag the US cycle for 4 years. Today's Toronto housing mkt does have the exact same feel of the NYC housing mkt of 2007, which was about to collapse then. And the current housing price of Toronto is actually more expensive than the greater NYC area( minus Manhatten). So it just doesn't add up. Very soon...speculators in Toronto's housing mkt will feel the same pain every New Yorkers endured in the past few years, which I consider lucky. Hopefully Toronto mkt won't experience something similar to the maginitude of collapse that occured in Florida and Southern Cal's housing mkt. That's damn scary and will hurt lots of Canadian families.
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	26#   楼主| 发表于 2011-12-14 07:19:22 | 只看该作者 本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-13 18:22 编辑 Good to see you Taiwanwolf!!!  Thank you again so much for the hard massage recco bro! It's getting worse than I originally thought. Debt ratio nearing level that got Americans into trouble http://www.theglobeandmail.com/r ... ble/article2269618/ The burden among households rose in the third quarter as they took on more debt with little change in what they were bringing in, and household net worth fell markedly, clearly not a good sign amid rising unemployment and forecasts that suggest economic growth will slow. - The ratio of debt to personal disposable income, a key measure of where a consumer stands, climbed in the quarter to a record 152.98 per cent from 150.57 in the second quarter - A separate measure that looks at just credit market debt rose to 150.8 per cent. Mortgage credit rose to $1-trillion and other consumer debt to $448-billion, the federal agency said. - If indebtedness continues to grow at this speed, the debt-to-income ratio will hit 160 per cent – the level at which both U.S. and U.K. households got into trouble
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happyshine 4 主题 122 帖子 627 积分 版主 积分627 发消息	27# 发表于 2011-12-14 11:57:31 | 只看该作者 jonp2k 发表于 2011-12-12 14:25 The stock market may be volatile these days but this is the time you can make money with the price f ... The most dangerous time in stock market is also the most rewarding time if u've the guts to jump in the ship
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Ben2009 408 主题 2937 帖子 4万 积分 超级版主 积分45801 发消息	28# 发表于 2011-12-14 12:25:38 | 只看该作者 happyshine 发表于 2011-12-13 22:57 The most dangerous time in stock market is also the most rewarding time if u've the guts to jump i ... Samurai & Happy c-hings, 747 sports/investment section needs u experienced commentators!
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jonp2k 2 主题 44 帖子 897 积分 中级会员 积分897 发消息	29# 发表于 2011-12-14 12:58:43 | 只看该作者 happyshine 发表于 2011-12-13 22:57 The most dangerous time in stock market is also the most rewarding time if u've the guts to jump i ... 英雄所見略同
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ethan 1 主题 3 帖子 434 积分 注册会员 积分434 发消息

30# 发表于 2011-12-30 09:08:08 | 只看该作者 Very intriguing post gentlemen Just want add that the world central bank are also running low on ammunition (monetary stimulus) and no sign of fiscal stimulus to be seen so I share the view with 7 bro unless QE3 kicks in

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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	31#   楼主| 发表于 2012-7-26 11:21:04 | 只看该作者 Let's review my prediction performance status: 1.  MM prices will drop particularly in the mid market segment and there will be much more choice and competition Prices haven't dropped but choice has increased especially Kimchi MM  supply   2.  Residential Real estate will plummet - condos 1st to feel it spilling over to residential housing -  Yes Canadians are just the same like everyone else  in the world and will learn a harsh lesson   The bubble is deflating  in Vancouver.   Toronto will be next .  Mark my words. Recent speculators and buyers in the last year will get creamed 3.  Rents will decrease    This will follow 4.  Unemployment will rise    Many large financial institutions are bracing themselves for slowing revenue and hence cost cutting.  Strategic outsourcing is a priority.   RIM cut 5,000.    World macro economic outlook is negative.    Europe is in trouble - Spain is wobbling.    US still fragile.   China printing money to boost GDP causing high inflation on food. Bros eliminate debt fast and grow cash safety cushion  for that rainy day.
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dadizhu 24 主题 281 帖子 1093 积分 中级会员 积分1093 发消息	32# 发表于 2012-7-27 00:55:31 | 只看该作者 Good summary but if everyone expects gov't (US been #1, China/EU/JAP etc) turns on the printer, would you keep hard asset instead of useless paper (cash is king or just paper?)?  Where's the logic here? You forget to mention gold is bigger bubble cuz the bull has on the run for 14 yrs on!  Anyways, I think the only solution to the debt is a new war or devalue your money (makes the debt cheaper) which in turns, hard assets will increase in monetary terms (just a number). so don't write off housing yet.
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	33#   楼主| 发表于 2012-7-27 05:50:16 | 只看该作者 dadizhu 发表于 2012-7-26 11:55 Good summary but if everyone expects gov't (US been #1, China/EU/JAP etc) turns on the printer, woul ... I should clarify. Liquidity is king in an unstable economic environment (your net wealth shouldnt be all tied  up in 1 asset class like real estate) but your long term investments for the avg joe (Im not avg ) should be be in (Interest bearing, bond, equities investments ) to beat inflation.   5-10% of my portfolio was in gold which I sold off to lock in my sweet gains.
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	34#   楼主| 发表于 2012-7-27 05:53:52 | 只看该作者 Anyways, I think the only solution to the debt is a new war or devalue your money (makes the debt cheaper) which in turns, hard assets will increase in monetary terms (just a number). so don't write off housing yet. Here is my take on RE who  ever bought in the last year and in near future is going to LOSE especially those who leveraged heavily.   REad the my prior original post in the link provided as I dont want to explain everything again .    This is not something that can be explained in a paragraph
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	35#   楼主| 发表于 2012-7-27 06:17:50 | 只看该作者 Also holding RE as a hedge against inflation is not so simplistic a strategy.    It's a double edge sword.  Sure your debt/loan  in real terms does not rise with inflation at the end of the lending term.  But Interest rates usually go up to curtail inflation.    So with high debt and high interest rates it could kill a household and if a person loses their job, Bye bye RE asset.
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happypooning 122 主题 7154 帖子 1万 积分 金牌会员 积分13152 发消息	36# 发表于 2014-1-31 12:39:54 | 只看该作者 i just spent at least 10 mins reading the whole thing..i agree with most, just a bit skeptical about rents decreasing and real estate bubbles. real estate and rent "seem" to go up regardless.
	coldfeet before the trip, it will be over soon, but so much can happen in a blink of an eye, let alone weeks. dont let me down sweetie, u gonna completely alter my lifepath once u step into that house
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dadizhu 24 主题 281 帖子 1093 积分 中级会员 积分1093 发消息	37# 发表于 2014-1-31 22:18:25 | 只看该作者 happy Chinese new year 2014 now...not many 7-hings prediction made in 2011 come true yet..  Yes, eventually he will be right cuz even a dead clock is right twice a day... 1 - MM price is very stable - good dimsum is $150 vs $120 before 2 - Variable mortgage rate mid 2% - historic lows 3 - Toronto housing is hotter than Barbie.. (sales # are down cuz NO ONE IS SELLING...) 4 - Rent is increasing 5 - Gold had their worst year in memory 6 - Low CAD will boost export and stablize employment (yes, lot of headline layoffs and unemployment edges up but nothing off the chart). Let's hope 7-hings prediction come true in next 2 yrs....we all want lower MM price and cheaper houses so we can buy one.
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HC1265 6 主题 179 帖子 880 积分 中级会员 积分880 发消息	38# 发表于 2014-2-2 10:39:40 | 只看该作者 7samurai 发表于 2011-12-10 09:18 Sexholic  bro  I live in the real  world not economic theory -  I don't know how old you are but I h ... Hi, I lived here since the 80s. I still recall tht price od housing rose about 70% from 1985 to 1989. By 1990 almost all areas lost 25%. Price kept on dropping from 1990 to 1997. They do correct at times!
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HC1265 6 主题 179 帖子 880 积分 中级会员 积分880 发消息	39# 发表于 2014-2-2 10:42:18 | 只看该作者 dashfortrash 发表于 2011-12-11 01:35 yah I'm in a dilemma. I helped pay off my parent's place and am looking to move out and get my own ... Don't worry, over long time, price of housing always goes by the rule of demand & supply.
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40# 发表于 2014-2-2 11:00:20 | 只看该作者 happypooning 发表于 2014-1-30 23:39 i just spent at least 10 mins reading the whole thing..i agree with most, just a bit skeptical about ... I have seen several cycles of real-estates. This one is defying logic. Too much money around! But when it's time to cool off, price will drop. Rent will drop too, as more adult children are moving back home with parents.

goodstuff

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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	41#   楼主| 发表于 2014-2-2 11:17:54 | 只看该作者 happypooning 发表于 2014-1-30 23:39 i just spent at least 10 mins reading the whole thing..i agree with most, just a bit skeptical about ... Wait till you go through a cycle.   Age and experience gives wisdom ?
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happypooning 122 主题 7154 帖子 1万 积分 金牌会员 积分13152 发消息	42# 发表于 2014-2-3 02:34:35 | 只看该作者 7samurai 发表于 2014-2-1 22:17 Wait till you go through a cycle.   Age and experience gives wisdom ? ok, that's why i didn't jump into conclusion, like i said i am just skeptical, but still speculate
	coldfeet before the trip, it will be over soon, but so much can happen in a blink of an eye, let alone weeks. dont let me down sweetie, u gonna completely alter my lifepath once u step into that house
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	43#   楼主| 发表于 2014-2-3 04:20:51 | 只看该作者 happypooning 发表于 2014-2-2 13:34 ok, that's why i didn't jump into conclusion, like i said i am just skeptical, but still speculate ... No worries when the realestate bubble burst you will surely know and many others.  I just can't tell you when it will happen but if you understand the concept of KPIs and fundamentals it would be crystal clear?
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7samurai 88 主题 3759 帖子 8860 积分 高级会员 积分8860 发消息	44#   楼主| 发表于 2014-2-6 12:48:18 | 只看该作者 http://www.greaterfool.ca/ For those who believe real estate will go up forever and carry a high debt load.  If exposed to interest rates increases  in next few years or employment risk I would be very worried. Are you a greater fool?
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45#   楼主| 发表于 2014-3-5 20:13:23 | 只看该作者 Scary stuff . 70 percent of Canadians won't contribute to rrsp?     banking on that house  or box in the sky for retirement? http://www.greaterfool.ca/page/2/ Happy lives don’t come from owning a house. They come from financial security. In big cities, the two are often mutually exclusive. As real estate prices seep higher, they suck off more income leaving owners with no Plan B. And trust me, you’ll need one. That brings us to Monday night. When the banks close and the advisors go home, RRSP season is over. The moment will have passed for people to take $20,000 out of the orange guy’s shorts, put it into a taxless self-directed plan in great ETFs, get a tax refund of $6,000 and then shove that into a TFSA also invested in growth assets. Why would folks not want to turn twenty grand into $26,000, and gain tax-free growth instead of having taxable savings paying almost nothing? Simple. Most people don’t have $20,000. But they have a house. A Scotiabank survey days ago concluded that 70% of people won’t make any RRSP contribution this year. The reason was overwhelming – 74% said they lack the funds to invest. It gets worse. Of those people who already have RRSPs, a staggering 40% confess they have sucked money out over the past year – an all-time high. (The previous record was the year before, when 36% withdrew savings.) The top two reasons people are snorfling their investments? (a) To buy a house, and (b) to pay down debt. Now, of those who will actually contribute to a retirement fund, RBC tells us the grand total will be $4,600. Only 23% of people investing will contribute the maximum allowable (18% of earned income, with a cap of about $24,000). Sadly 75% of RRSP contributors on the cusp of retirement (over 55) will not shelter the max. Only half of people have an RRSP, and the average amount in there is under $50,000. This is consistent with TFSA numbers, since just a fraction of us actually hold investments in them. Meanwhile almost 70% of people have no corporate pension, and the CPP is birdseed. It’s just like Carl told us after he bought his $640,000 semi on a dodgy street – he was left with $20,000 in liquid investments, $15,000 in debt and a half-million-dollar mortgage. I fear this describes millions of people across this hormonal land. Yeah, yeah, I know RRSPs are out of favour and as sexy as a cold sore. In the long-run, TFSAs are a far superior vehicle for actually financing a retirement, even given the low threshold for contributions (so long, of course, as they are not used for saving). But an RRSP can be a damn useful thing for tax-shifting. As a consequence, everybody should have one. As I’ve mentioned before, smart people cut income tax by dumping funds into an RRSP while they’re working so they can retrieve the money with little or no tax when they take time off, trek to Tibet to find themselves, get punted for a washroom dalliance, or go through a maternity leave. Other smart people income-split by putting everything possible into a spousal plan, which your stay-at-home partner can extract later. The higher-income-earner gets to slice the annual tax payable, deducting the contribution, while the partner gets the cash after a three-year hold period. Or, as mentioned above, you can take assets you have now, move them into an RRSP and get a refund for selling yourself stuff you already own – which can then fund the TFSA.